Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 · FC Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec
Likeliest: FC Hradec Králové win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Hradec Králové42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+3
OursMarket
FK Jablonec24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Hradec Králové
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v SK Líšeň (H)2-4
- Sep 20 · v FK Teplice (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at 1.FK Příbram (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Zlín (A)2-1
FK Jablonec
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-3
- Oct 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-0
- Oct 2 · at Dukla Praha (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Zlín (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Hradec Králové | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.