Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjällby
Likeliest: Mjällby win · 61%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Iberia 199915%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Mjällby61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Iberia 1999
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 15 · at Sint-Truidense VV (A)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)1-2
- Aug 20 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)0-4
- Aug 11 · v Larne FC (H)1-1
- Aug 4 · at Larne FC (A)0-0
Mjällby
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Västerås SK (A)0-1
- Oct 15 · v Inter Club d'Escaldes (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Degerfors IF (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at FC Trollhättan (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v GAIS (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Iberia 1999 | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.