J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:50 · FC Imabari vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Likeliest: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo win · 41%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Imabari29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Imabari
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 31 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-1
- Oct 21 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-3
- Oct 17 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)2-1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-0
- Oct 25 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-0
- Oct 21 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-0
- Oct 17 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Imabari | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.