J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · FC Imabari vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: FC Imabari win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Imabari37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Vanraure Hachinohe34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Imabari
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Tochigi City FC (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama FC (A)1-2
Vanraure Hachinohe
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Imabari | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.