3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
Likeliest: MSV Duisburg win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Ingolstadt 0426%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
MSV Duisburg50%46%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Ingolstadt 04
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v SV Wehen Wiesbaden (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (H)1-2
MSV Duisburg
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Viktoria Köln (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-1
- Sep 15 · v TSV Havelse (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Ingolstadt 04 | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.