Liga MX (Mexico) · Wed, Oct 21 · 01:00 · FC Juárez vs Atlante FC
Likeliest: FC Juárez win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Juárez36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Atlante FC35%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Juárez
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · v Club Tijuana (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club León (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Tigres UANL (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-2
Atlante FC
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Querétaro FC (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v CF Monterrey (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Juárez | Atlante FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.