Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · FC Juárez vs Club Tijuana
Likeliest: Club Tijuana win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Juárez30%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Club Tijuana42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Juárez
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 28 · at Club León (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Tigres UANL (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-2
- Aug 31 · at CD Toluca (A)0-4
Club Tijuana
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v Atlas FC (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at CF Pachuca (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Pumas UNAM (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at CD Guadalajara (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | FC Juárez | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.