Superliga (Denmark) · Fri, Sep 11 · 17:00 · FC København vs AC Horsens
Likeliest: FC København win · 78%
A tight one: we make it 78% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC København78%75%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%16%−2
OursMarket
AC Horsens9%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 89% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC København
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Odense Boldklub (A)5-0
- Sep 3 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v Inter Turku (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Viborg FF (A)0-4
AC Horsens
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 6 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Viborg FF (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Lyngby (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Odense Boldklub (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · v Brøndby IF (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC København | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.