Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · FC København vs AGF
Likeliest: FC København win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC København58%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
AGF19%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC København
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Midtjylland (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Brøndby IF (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Skovshoved (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v AC Horsens (H)2-0
AGF
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at KAA Gent (A)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at AC Horsens (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · at BK Skjold (A)6-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC København | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.