Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · FC København vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: FC København win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC København39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Sporting Braga32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC København
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at FC Midtjylland (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Brøndby IF (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Skovshoved (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v AC Horsens (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Odense Boldklub (A)5-0
Sporting Braga
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · v Sporting (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Santa Clara (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Estoril Praia (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Alverca (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC København | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.