Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:30 · FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 43%
A 32% home win. The market says 26%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln32%26%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen43%50%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 34% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 17 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 22 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)6-3
- Mar 21 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.