Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 · FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 41%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%31%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 69% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 57% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Mar 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Feb 27 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 13 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Feb 28 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Köln form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record