Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 17:30 · FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 43%
We make it 75% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 62%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln43%34%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt35%40%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 62% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 46% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-4
- Oct 25 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-1
- Oct 18 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 9 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-0
- Nov 4 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Heidenheim (A)1-1
- Oct 25 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Oct 22 · v Liverpool (H)1-5
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.