Bundesliga (Germany) · Wed, Jan 14 · 19:30 · FC Köln vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 48%
A 29% home win. The market says 9%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln29%9%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%14%+9
OursMarket
FC Bayern München48%77%−28
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 75% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 23% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 91% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 86% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 11% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Jan 10 · at Heidenheim (A)2-2
- Dec 20 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 11 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)8-1
- Dec 21 · at Heidenheim (A)4-0
- Dec 14 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sporting CP (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.