Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 14:30 · FC Köln vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 51%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln51%40%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin28%31%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 49% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 60% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 57% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 13 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-4
- Nov 8 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-3
FC Union Berlin
WinLossLossLossWin
- Dec 12 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Nov 29 · v Heidenheim (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.