Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 10 · 15:30 · FC Köln vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln48%47%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Heidenheim28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- May 2 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-2
- Apr 17 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
Heidenheim
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- May 2 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-3
- Apr 25 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Apr 19 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.