Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 · FC Köln vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 59%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln59%47%+12
OursMarket
Draw20%27%−7
OursMarket
St. Pauli21%26%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 53% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 65% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 29 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-4
- Nov 8 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-4
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossWin
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-3
- Nov 23 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.