Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 12 · 13:30 · FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Köln52%43%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Werder Bremen25%30%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 59% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Köln
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 5 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Feb 27 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
Werder Bremen
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 4 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- Mar 15 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)4-1
- Feb 28 · v Heidenheim (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Köln | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.