PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · FC Koper vs Brinje Grosuplje
Likeliest: FC Koper win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Koper56%59%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Brinje Grosuplje18%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Koper
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v NK Olimpija Ljubljana (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at NK Celje (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)1-0
Brinje Grosuplje
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v NK Maribor (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v NK Celje (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Koper | Brinje Grosuplje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.