PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Sep 19 · 15:30 · FC Koper vs NK Nafta Lendava 1903
Likeliest: FC Koper win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Koper58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
NK Nafta Lendava 190318%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Koper
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v NK Olimpija Ljubljana (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at NK Celje (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · at NŠ Mura (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v NK Bravo (H)0-0
NK Nafta Lendava 1903
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 11 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)2-1
- Sep 4 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · v NK Maribor (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · v NK Celje (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Koper | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.