Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:00 · FC Košice vs MŠK Žilina
Likeliest: FC Košice win · 48%
Likely score: 3–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Košice48%47%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
MŠK Žilina29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 70% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Košice
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)1-1
- Oct 14 · at MŠK Považská Bystrica (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v KFC Komárno (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v MFK Ružomberok (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Spartak Trnava (A)2-5
MŠK Žilina
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v DAC 1904 (H)2-3
- Oct 14 · at TJ Kostolné Kračany (A)5-0
- Oct 11 · at MFK Ružomberok (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v AS Trenčín (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Košice | MŠK Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.