Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 15:00 · FC Lahti vs FF Jaro
Likeliest: FC Lahti win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lahti64%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−1
OursMarket
FF Jaro16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lahti
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Ilves (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at VPS (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at SJK (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v KuPS (H)1-2
FF Jaro
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v SJK (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Ilves (A)0-2
- Aug 31 · at IFK Mariehamn (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at HJK (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Lahti | FF Jaro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.