Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:30 · FC Lausanne-Sport vs FC Lugano
Likeliest: FC Lugano win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lausanne-Sport22%25%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Lugano53%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lausanne-Sport
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Servette FC (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Vaduz (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · at FC Thun (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v FC Zürich (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at FC Luzern (A)0-1
FC Lugano
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 16 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Young Boys (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Basel (A)3-1
- Sep 3 · v Servette FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Sion (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Lausanne-Sport | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.