2. Liga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · FC Liefering vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Likeliest: FC Liefering win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Liefering38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Liefering
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Blau Weiss Linz (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Sturm Graz II (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · at Floridsdorfer AC (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v SKN St. Pölten (H)1-3
- Aug 28 · at ASK Voitsberg (A)3-2
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v SKU Amstetten (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Hertha Wels (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at SKN St. Pölten (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Floridsdorfer AC (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at Young Violets Austria Wien (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Liefering | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-4 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.