2. Liga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II
Likeliest: FC Liefering win · 45%
Likely score: 3–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Liefering45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Sturm Graz II32%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Liefering
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Floridsdorfer AC (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v SKN St. Pölten (H)1-3
- Aug 28 · at ASK Voitsberg (A)3-2
- Aug 21 · v Young Violets Austria Wien (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at First Vienna (A)2-2
Sturm Graz II
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v FC Wacker Innsbruck (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Austria Salzburg (A)3-3
- Aug 30 · v Rapid Wien II (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Admira Wacker (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Liefering | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.