Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Aug 29 · 12:30 · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv vs Karpaty Lviv
Likeliest: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv win · 45%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv45%20%+25
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Karpaty Lviv29%54%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 46% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 80% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 27% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
DrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 16 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Kudrivka (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Oleksandria (H)1-0
- Jun 5 · at Oleksandria (A)1-1
Karpaty Lviv
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Aug 1 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)4-1
- May 23 · v Zorya Luhansk (H)1-2
- May 17 · v Veres (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 30% |
| Clean sheets | — | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.