Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:00 · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy
Likeliest: LNZ Cherkasy win · 45%
A 36% draw. The market says 28%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv19%22%−3
OursMarket
Draw36%28%+8
OursMarket
LNZ Cherkasy45%50%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 72% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 31% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 19 · at Metalist 1925 (A)1-2
- Oct 12 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Chornomorets Odesa (A)0-0
LNZ Cherkasy
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Kudrivka (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.