Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Wed, Sep 16 · 17:00 · FC Lugano vs FC St. Gallen 1879
Likeliest: FC Lugano win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lugano48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC St. Gallen 187928%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lugano
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Young Boys (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Basel (A)3-1
- Sep 3 · v Servette FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Sion (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-1
FC St. Gallen 1879
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v FC Sion (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Servette FC (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Thun (H)3-4
- Aug 27 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Lugano | FC St. Gallen 1879 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-0 | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.