Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · FC Lugano vs FK Crvena zvezda
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lugano31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
FK Crvena zvezda41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lugano
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v FC Luzern (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)4-0
- Sep 16 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Young Boys (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Basel (A)3-1
FK Crvena zvezda
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FK IMT Beograd (A)1-0
- Sep 10 · at FK Radnik Surdulica (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Lugano | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-0 | 5-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.