Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Thu, Sep 3 · 18:30 · FC Lugano vs Servette FC
Likeliest: FC Lugano win · 43%
A 32% away win. The market says 28%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lugano43%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Servette FC32%28%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 62% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lugano
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 30 · at FC Sion (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-1
- Aug 13 · at NSÍ Runavík (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v FC Zürich (H)5-0
Servette FC
LossLossWinDraw
- Aug 29 · v FC Luzern (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)2-1
- Aug 1 · at FC Zürich (A)1-2
- Jul 25 · v Basel (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Lugano | Servette FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.