Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Sep 12 · 17:00 · FC Lugano vs Young Boys
Likeliest: Young Boys win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Lugano37%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Young Boys39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Lugano
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Basel (A)3-1
- Sep 3 · v Servette FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Sion (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-1
Young Boys
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v FC Luzern (H)3-3
- Sep 1 · at FC Zürich (A)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Basel (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · v FC Vaduz (H)4-2
- Aug 8 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Lugano | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.