Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:30 · FC Luzern vs Basel
Likeliest: FC Luzern win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Luzern45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Basel31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Luzern
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Vaduz (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Servette FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)2-2
Basel
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v FC Lugano (H)1-3
- Sep 3 · v FC Sion (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Young Boys (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · at FC Zürich (A)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Thun (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | FC Luzern | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.