Superliga (Denmark) · Mon, Sep 14 · 17:00 · FC Midtjylland vs Brøndby IF
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Midtjylland50%52%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Brøndby IF27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 70% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Midtjylland
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 7 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at AGF (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at HNK Rijeka (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Randers FC (H)1-0
Brøndby IF
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v Randers FC (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)1-3
- Aug 24 · v Silkeborg IF (H)3-1
- Aug 17 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-2
- Aug 9 · at AC Horsens (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Midtjylland | Brøndby IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.