Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:00 · FC Midtjylland vs FC København
Likeliest: FC København win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Midtjylland36%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC København38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Midtjylland
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Odense Boldklub (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Brøndby IF (H)4-2
- Sep 7 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at AGF (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
FC København
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Brøndby IF (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Skovshoved (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v AC Horsens (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Odense Boldklub (A)5-0
- Sep 3 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Midtjylland | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.