Superliga (Denmark) · Mon, Sep 7 · 17:00 · FC Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjælland
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Midtjylland68%48%+20
OursMarket
Draw18%24%−6
OursMarket
FC Nordsjælland14%28%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 72% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 52% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 63% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Midtjylland
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 2 · at AGF (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at HNK Rijeka (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Randers FC (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · v HNK Rijeka (H)2-0
FC Nordsjælland
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 3 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Brøndby IF (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)3-0
- Aug 20 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.