Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Midtjylland64%61%+4
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−2
OursMarket
Lyngby17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Midtjylland
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 19 · at Viborg FF (A)2-1
- Oct 15 · at KF Egnatia (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FC København (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Odense Boldklub (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Brøndby IF (H)4-2
Lyngby
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)3-3
- Oct 11 · at Brøndby IF (A)2-5
- Sep 18 · v Silkeborg IF (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Viborg FF (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Midtjylland | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.