Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truidense VV
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A 61% home win. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Midtjylland61%56%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−3
OursMarket
Sint-Truidense VV18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 44% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Midtjylland
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 19 · at Viborg FF (A)2-1
- Oct 15 · at KF Egnatia (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FC København (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Odense Boldklub (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Brøndby IF (H)4-2
Sint-Truidense VV
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Lommel SK (H)4-1
- Oct 15 · v FC Iberia 1999 (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at KV Mechelen (A)3-4
- Sep 20 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at SK Beveren (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Midtjylland | Sint-Truidense VV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.