USL League One (USA) · Wed, Oct 7 · 23:00 · FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers
Likeliest: FC Naples win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Naples52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Richmond Kickers23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Naples
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v AC Boise (H)0-2
Richmond Kickers
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 3 · v One Knoxville SC (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Charlotte Independence (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Westchester SC (A)2-5
- Sep 12 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Naples | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-3 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.