USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · FC Naples vs Spokane Velocity FC
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FC Naples34%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Spokane Velocity FC40%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Naples
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)1-0
- Oct 7 · v Richmond Kickers (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)2-2
Spokane Velocity FC
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-4
- Oct 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)2-0
- Oct 4 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Naples | Spokane Velocity FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.