Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 13 · 16:00 · FC Nordsjælland vs AGF
Likeliest: FC Nordsjælland win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Nordsjælland54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
AGF23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Nordsjælland
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 7 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-2
- Sep 3 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Brøndby IF (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)3-0
AGF
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v Silkeborg IF (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · v FC Midtjylland (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Randers FC (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · v Benfica (H)1-3
- Aug 23 · v Odense Boldklub (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Nordsjælland | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.