Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FC Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia
Likeliest: FC Nordsjælland win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Nordsjælland65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
CSKA Sofia14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Nordsjælland
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Lyngby (A)3-3
- Oct 15 · at Hearts (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Odense Boldklub (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Viborg FF (A)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Vinder Vatanspor Vri (A)3-0
CSKA Sofia
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v AS Monaco (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Nordsjælland | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.