Superliga (Romania) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:15 · FC Petrolul Ploieşti vs Sepsi OSK
Likeliest: FC Petrolul Ploieşti win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Petrolul Ploieşti41%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Sepsi OSK29%27%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Petrolul Ploieşti
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)1-3
- Sep 21 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at FCSB (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Corvinul Hunedoara (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at FC Universitatea Cluj (A)3-2
Sepsi OSK
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v FC Dinamo București (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at UTA Arad (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v CFR 1907 Cluj (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Botoșani (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · at FC Argeș Pitești (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Petrolul Ploieşti | Sepsi OSK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.