Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · Sun, Aug 16 · 17:00 · FC Porto B vs SC Farense
Likeliest: FC Porto B win · 68%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Porto B68%29%+39
OursMarket
Draw20%29%−9
OursMarket
SC Farense12%42%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 58% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 71% | −39 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 71% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 40% | +44 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Porto B
Loss
- Aug 10 · at Lusitânia Lourosa (A)0-2
SC Farense
DrawWin
- Aug 9 · v Torreense (H)2-1
- May 30 · at C.F. Os Belenenses (A)0-0