Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 20 · 19:30 · FC Porto vs Benfica
Likeliest: Benfica win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Porto34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Benfica36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Porto
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Casa Pia (A)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Moreirense (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v FC Arouca (H)2-0
Benfica
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 16 · at AC Milan (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gil Vicente (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Moreirense (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Marítimo (A)3-0
- Aug 31 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Porto | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.