Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 8 · 19:00 · FC Porto vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 44%
A 32% home win. The market says 21%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Porto32%21%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Manchester City44%55%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 79% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 28% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Porto
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · v Moreirense (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v FC Arouca (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Rio Ave (A)2-0
- Aug 9 · v FC Alverca (H)2-0
Manchester City
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Bournemouth (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Porto | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.