Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Fri, Sep 4 · 19:15 · FC Porto vs Moreirense
Likeliest: FC Porto win · 58%
A 22% away win. The market says 5%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Porto58%83%−25
OursMarket
Draw21%12%+8
OursMarket
Moreirense22%5%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 36% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 95% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 17% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 88% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 94% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Porto
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 29 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v FC Arouca (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Rio Ave (A)2-0
- Aug 9 · v FC Alverca (H)2-0
- May 16 · v Santa Clara (H)1-0
Moreirense
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Aug 30 · at Casa Pia (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Arouca (A)0-4
- Aug 9 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-2
- May 16 · v AVS (H)0-0
- May 11 · at Tondela (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Porto | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.