Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: FC Porto win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Porto56%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
PSV Eindhoven21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Porto
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Real Betis (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Marítimo (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Benfica (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Casa Pia (A)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
PSV Eindhoven
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-2
- Oct 13 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Twente (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Porto | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.