Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Schalke 0430%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
1. FSV Mainz 0543%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Schalke 04
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-3
1. FSV Mainz 05
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Hamburger SV (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Schalke 04 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.