Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:30 · FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 60%
A 22% home win. The market says 6%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Schalke 0422%6%+16
OursMarket
Draw18%11%+8
OursMarket
FC Bayern München60%83%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 77% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 53% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 17% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 94% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 89% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 7% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Schalke 04
DrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Hallescher FC (A)2-2
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 2 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)4-1
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)5-1
- May 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-0
- May 16 · v FC Köln (H)5-1
- May 9 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Schalke 04 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.