K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC
Likeliest: FC Seoul win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Seoul51%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Gangwon FC21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Seoul
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)2-2
- Oct 14 · at Melbourne Victory (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Jeju SK (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Pohang Steelers (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Persib Bandung (H)0-1
Gangwon FC
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Incheon United (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Phnom Penh Crown (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Incheon United (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Seoul | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.